The economic challenges faced by the global shipping industry will continue into 2024 due to high inventories as well as a pullback in customer spending, according to a recent survey.
One of the participants, Alan Baer — the CEO of the transportation services OL USA — said that the CNBC Supply Chain Survey indicates the global freight market will see little to no growth during the first half of 2024. He said that this could lead to downward pricing, which could cause shipping volumes to increase in the second half of 2024.
A majority of those interviewed said that they believe that LTL trucking rates will either decrease or remain unchanged during the first quarter of 2024 while 33% said LTL trucking rates will increase by 5% during Q1 2024.
“We expect retail peak season for trucking to be sluggish,” said Noah Hoffman, the vice president of C.H. Robinson, another company that participated in the survey.
Sixty-seven percent of respondents said that they expect full freight rates to remain unchanged or decrease during Q1 2024. A third of responders said they think full freight rates will grow by 5% during the first quarter.
Thirty-three percent of interviewees said that they believe freight volumes will increase by at least 5% during the first half of 2024. Conversely, 67% of respondents said they think freight volumes will either remain unchanged or decrease during H1 2024.
Those interviewed said they expect a rebound during the second half of 2024 with half of the participants saying they believe freight volumes will increase by 5%. A third said freight volumes could increase by 10% while another 17% predict freight volumes to grow by 15% during this period.
“Unfortunately, we are going to see significant challenges in volumes, and this will continue to cause more providers to exit the market or implement significant layoffs,” said Paul Brashier, the vice president of drayage and intermodal at ITS Logistics. “This is not 2008-2009 by any means but it sure feels like it.”
Logistics professionals managing freight manufacturing orders and transportation at numerous companies were interviewed for the CNBC Supply Chain Survey between October 21 and October 31, 2023.
