India is poised to surpass Vietnam in mobile phone export volumes by the end of 2025, according to a new study by the Centre for Development Studies (CDS).
The report emphasizes China’s continued importance in India’s electronics manufacturing journey, particularly as a key supplier of critical components.
Led by Professor C. Veeramani, Director and RBI Chair Professor at CDS, the study advocates for India to adopt a Global Value Chain (GVC)-centric approach to become a leading global smartphone supplier. Such an approach, the study suggests, could help India increase domestic value addition to as much as 40%.
GVCs operate like global assembly lines, with different countries contributing to various stages of production based on their unique strengths, whether that’s low-cost labor, advanced technology, raw material access, or specialized skills. China and Vietnam successfully leveraged this model, beginning with mobile phone assembly and gradually building a robust local ecosystem of component manufacturers.
India, the study notes, should avoid the trap of trying to design, manufacture, and assemble everything domestically and instead focus on scaling strategically within the global production network.
“India’s trajectory is similar to other Asian economies, achieving volume first and value addition later. Export-led growth is the bedrock of long-term competitiveness, and consistent government support will be key over the next decade,” said Prof. Veeramani.
India’s emergence as a global mobile phone exporter has been swift. In 2024 (CY2024), mobile phone exports are estimated at $20.5 billion, making India the third-largest exporter globally. This transformation began in earnest around 2017, driven by strong policy backing and the country’s increasing integration into global supply chains, especially after the launch of the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme in 2020.
According to the study, India’s mobile phone exports have surged from a modest $0.2 billion in 2017–18 to a projected $24.1 billion in 2024. This growth has been accompanied by a significant rise in Domestic Value Addition (DVA), which reached 23%, or over $10 billion, by 2022–23, including both direct and indirect contributions from supporting industries.
At the same time, mobile phone imports have plummeted, dropping from $8 billion in 2014–15 to just $0.43 billion in 2024–25. India, once grappling with a mobile trade deficit, turned the tide by 2018–19 and has maintained a growing trade surplus since then.
“As China increasingly focuses on higher-end components and innovation, India has a strategic opportunity to emerge as the next global hub for electronics manufacturing, particularly in assembly. The country’s vast labor pool will be a crucial asset in this shift,” the report concludes.
