The US air cargo industry is bracing for renewed turbulence as the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) 10% reduction in flight capacity across 40 major airports coincides with the grounding of UPS and FedEx’s McDonnell Douglas MD-11 fleets, creating fresh pressure on supply chains ahead of the crucial Thanksgiving and holiday shipping season.
The FAA ordered airlines to cut domestic flight operations by 10% between 6 a.m. and 10 p.m. local time due to ongoing air traffic controller shortages linked to the prolonged government shutdown, according to the Associated Press. The directive impacts major hubs central to the parcel industry, including FedEx’s Memphis and Indianapolis bases and UPS’ Worldport in Louisville, Kentucky, where a cargo plane crash this week claimed 14 lives, including three crew members.
In response to the accident, UPS and FedEx announced they were grounding their MD-11 aircraft “out of an abundance of caution,” sidelining a notable portion of their fleets — around 9% for UPS and 4% for FedEx. The simultaneous reduction in flight capacity has intensified concerns over potential delays in the coming weeks.
“This is such a stressful time for both companies,” said Patrick Penfield, a supply-chain management professor at Syracuse University, quoted by AP. “You’ve got a surge in demand, and then you just lost some of your capacity. They’re already scrambling, and now they’re going to scramble even more.” Penfield warned that shoppers could face delays of up to two days in mid-December and urged consumers to place orders early.
Although most air freight is international and therefore largely unaffected by the FAA directive, the cutback in domestic passenger flights — which transport roughly 35% of global trade by value — is expected to create short-term constraints.
FedEx said it had adopted “operational modifications” to maintain safe and timely shipping, while UPS assured that its network remains “safe, resilient and reliable.” Both companies noted that most of their flights operate outside the restricted hours, easing the immediate strain on overnight delivery services.
However, industry leaders caution that ripple effects are likely. Mike Short, president of freight forwarder C.H. Robinson, emphasized that reduced commercial flights could tighten domestic air capacity and extend transit times. He noted that trucks and expedited ground transport can absorb some displaced volume, but not without difficulty.
High-value goods such as smartphones, semiconductor chips, and gaming consoles — which rely heavily on air freight — may experience mild disruptions, though ground networks are expected to mitigate part of the capacity loss.
“Air cargo depends on every part of the aviation ecosystem working in sync,” said Brandon Fried, executive director of the Airforwarders Association. “When capacity is cut and federal employees are stretched thin, the supply chain slows — and the longer this shutdown continues, the worse it will get.”
Despite the challenges, experts say the logistics sector has become more adaptable after years of pandemic-induced shocks. Eytan Buchman, chief marketing officer at Freightos, noted that airlines have become adept at consolidating loads and rerouting through secondary hubs. “In the near term, space may feel tighter, but this isn’t a one-to-one loss in capacity,” he said.
For now, analysts expect limited delays. But if the government shutdown continues into December, they warn that the US holiday delivery season could face its most significant stress test in years.
