Air cargo shippers have been advised to hold off on their 2025 tenders until after the expected turbulence of this year’s peak season, according to Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer , Niall van de Wouw. In a set of recommendations aimed at helping shippers navigate the challenging market, van de Wouw stressed the importance of securing firm terms and conditions (T&Cs), steering clear of air hubs prone to e-commerce spikes, and leveraging
the current low backhaul demand. He also emphasized the need to delay tender processes until the peak season’s volatility subsides.
“The market sentiment during peak season will inevitably influence negotiations for 2025, and suppliers might use this uncertainty to present a more negative outlook,” van de Wouw explained, advising companies to avoid locking in agreements prematurely.
He pointed out that recency bias – where recent events disproportionately influence decision-making – will likely shape shippers and vendors’ views of the 2025 market, encouraging companies to wait until the situation stabilizes before entering talks. “As long as you’ve secured solid T&Cs, you can afford to wait for the market to calm,” he noted. Early 2025, he predicted, could bring a more stable environment for negotiations.
Van de Wouw further highlighted the importance of pre-agreed T&Cs, which would help both parties maintain consistency and manage the upcoming peak season effectively, without the risk of shifting priorities. He also warned shippers not to underestimate the impact of e-commerce, advising them to avoid hubs that are especially vulnerable to these surges, such as those in Hong Kong and South China, when shipping between Southeast Asia and North America.
At the same time, the e-commerce boom presents an opportunity for shippers with backhaul volumes, van de Wouw said. The imbalance between headhaul and backhaul traffic creates a potential advantage in negotiations. “Shippers able to offer backhaul capacity have significant leverage, as these volumes are often more valuable than fronthaul, which is crucial for overall profitability,” he remarked.
Xeneta has forecasted a challenging end-of-year peak season, with significant hurdles ahead. “Storm clouds are gathering over the air freight market, and we’re facing what could be an especially difficult peak season,” the company stated. The disruption began in Q4 2023 with a surge in demand triggered by the Red Sea Crisis and a sharp increase in Chinese e-commerce activity. Since then, freight rates across key Asian routes have continued to rise, even during the typically slower summer months.
Xeneta’s dynamic load-factor metric, which tracks the balance between cargo and available capacity, has already risen by four percentage points compared to last year, with freight rates out of the Asia-Pacific region up by 25-40%.
