China and Russia together have the potential to absorb nearly $20 billion of Indian exports currently destined for the United States, according to a Moneycontrol analysis. However, market realities suggest most of the redirection will depend on China.
While Russia has pledged to take on all shipments affected by the new US tariffs, its market can realistically accommodate only around $5 billion. Moscow’s relief is concentrated in niches such as ceramics, coffee, specialised tools, ballpoint pens, and select pet foods. For instance, Russia could absorb $141 million worth of floor and wall tiles, $13 million in coffee beans, and $13 million in pet food exports from India. Apparel exports to Russia are limited, covering only women’s nightwear ($39 million) and select suits.
China, on the other hand, emerges as the only market large enough to absorb India’s mass-consumption and consumer-facing products. Seafood, particularly frozen shrimp and prawns worth nearly $1.85 billion, stands out as the single largest swing category. China’s imports in this segment totalled $3.5 billion in 2024, with $740 million of Indian shipments already entering the market last year.
Packaged foods—including concentrates, syrups, protein powders, jams, and biscuits—also have significant headroom. China can potentially import $196 million worth of packaged foods, with nearly $77 million in jams, marmalades, and sweet biscuits redirected from the US. Spices such as cumin ($45 million) and capsicum ($33 million) and black tea ($38 million) could also find a new market in China.
In personal care and household goods, China dominates the potential for absorption, with cosmetic preparations ($32 million), plastics, and toys positioned to offset US-bound shipments. Apparel and footwear, the largest consumer-facing category after food, could see cotton T-shirts ($495 million), jerseys and sweaters ($89 million), and footwear ($31 million) redirected to China. Notably, China imported $509 million worth of T-shirts in 2024, of which just $9 million came from India, compared to $495 million shipped to the US.
Industry analysts note that while Russia provides selective relief in industrial and niche products, China is the more realistic counterweight for large-scale consumer-facing exports.