India’s merchandise exports are projected to reach USD 111.9 billion during the April–June quarter of FY2026-27, registering a marginal year-on-year growth of 0.3 per cent, according to the latest forecast by the Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank). The outlook reflects continued resilience in India’s export sector despite global economic uncertainty and geopolitical disruptions.
Exim Bank estimated non-oil exports at USD 97.8 billion for the quarter, up 3.5 per cent year-on-year, while non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are expected to touch USD 90.4 billion, growing 2.9 per cent. The bank attributed the projected growth to diversification of export markets, supportive policy interventions, favourable trade negotiations, and anticipated recovery in global demand.
However, the bank cautioned that risks from geopolitical tensions, volatile commodity prices, and uncertain global trade conditions could continue to weigh on export performance. The projections were generated using Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) model, which tracks India’s export trends through a range of domestic and international indicators.