Suez Canal traffic remains sharply below pre-crisis levels more than three months after the last reported Houthi attack, highlighting the continued reluctance of ship operators to return to the Red Sea route.
According to BIMCO, 100 days have now passed since the last vessel was attacked, when the Minervagracht was hit on September 29. Although the Houthis declared an end to attacks 43 days later, vessel transits through the canal have yet to show any meaningful recovery.
“In the first week of 2026, Suez Canal transits were still around 60% below the same week in 2023, before widespread diversions around the Cape of Good Hope began,” said Niels Rasmussen, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst.
Since November 2023, close to 100 ships have been attacked or hijacked in the Red Sea region. While several incidents occurred toward the end of 2023, the sharp decline in Suez Canal traffic only became evident from January 2024. From that point onward, quarterly deadweight tonnage (dwt) transiting the canal has remained between 51% and 64% lower than in 2023.
This trend largely persisted throughout 2025. Suez Canal dwt transits were 57% to 64% below pre-crisis levels, with container shipping experiencing the most severe impact. In the fourth quarter of 2025, container ship transits were down by 86% compared with 2023 levels. In contrast, bulk carriers, crude tankers and product tankers recorded smaller declines of 55%, 32% and 19% respectively.
Product tankers have emerged as a relative outlier. Elevated freight rate premiums have encouraged more operators in this segment to resume Suez transits. In the final quarter of 2025, product tanker movements were only 19% lower than in 2023, a notable improvement from the 45% decline seen during 2024.
Container shipping, however, has largely stayed away. There are early signs of a cautious return, with CMA CGM announcing that its MEDEX and INDAMEX services will revert to Suez Canal routings from January 2026. Maersk also made a tentative move in December, when the Maersk Sebarok became the carrier’s first vessel to transit the canal since early 2024. The company said further sailings would depend on security conditions continuing to meet its internal thresholds.
Lower war risk insurance premiums may support a broader recovery. S&P Global reported in early December that Red Sea premiums had fallen to around 0.2% of hull value, the lowest level since November 2023.
“A normalisation of ship transits now appears more likely than at any point over the past two years, but the pace remains uncertain,” Rasmussen said. While a return to Suez Canal routings would reduce operating costs for shipowners, it would also ease tonnage demand. BIMCO estimates that a full normalisation could reduce containership demand by around 10%, with other shipping segments facing demand reductions of 2% to 3%.
