A.P. Moller-Maersk has significantly upgraded its earnings outlook for 2026, signalling another highly profitable year for the global container shipping industry despite earlier concerns over vessel oversupply.
The Danish shipping major now expects underlying EBIT of US$2-4 billion, a sharp turnaround from its previous guidance, which had projected a potential loss of up to US$1.5 billion. The company has also raised its underlying EBITDA forecast to US$8-10 billion, compared with an earlier range of US$4.5-7 billion.
Maersk has simultaneously revised its forecast for global container demand growth to around 4% in 2026, up from its earlier estimate of 2-4%, citing stronger-than-anticipated cargo volumes and sustained strength in freight markets.
The revised guidance reflects a dramatic shift in market conditions. While many industry observers had expected a prolonged downturn as a record number of new container vessels entered service, demand has continued to outpace effective fleet growth.
According to maritime analyst Linerlytica, global TEU-mile demand is currently growing by 7.3%, compared with fleet supply growth of 5.4%, creating the widest demand-supply imbalance since late 2024. At the same time, nearly 11% of the global containership fleet is waiting outside ports due to congestion—the highest level recorded since 2022.
Freight markets have responded accordingly. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has climbed above 3,200 points, more than double pre-conflict levels, while freight rates on the Asia-Europe and Transpacific trades continue to strengthen. Market intelligence firm Xeneta expects disruptions linked to the Gulf crisis to persist through September, supporting elevated freight rates in the near term.
Despite the robust market, analysts remain cautious about the longer-term outlook. The global containership orderbook currently totals around 12 million TEU, representing more than one-third of the existing fleet, with vessel deliveries expected to peak next year.
However, much of the additional capacity continues to be absorbed by longer sailing routes around the Red Sea, port congestion, tactical capacity management by carriers, and ongoing geopolitical disruptions, including the Red Sea crisis and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
While the prevailing consensus is that the current market strength is driven largely by temporary disruptions rather than the beginning of a new shipping supercycle, Maersk’s latest guidance underscores the resilience of the container shipping sector.
The upgraded outlook highlights how quickly market dynamics can shift, with a year that was widely expected to be characterised by oversupply instead evolving into another period of strong profitability for the liner shipping industry.
