Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit China later this month for the first time in over seven years, in a significant diplomatic development as India navigates growing tensions with the United States.
According to a government source with direct knowledge of the matter, Modi will attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, scheduled to begin on August 31 in Tianjin, China. The visit marks his first trip to China since June 2018 and comes at a time when New Delhi’s relationship with Washington is under considerable strain.
The Indian Ministry of External Affairs has yet to comment on the visit.
The diplomatic move follows a gradual thaw in Sino-Indian relations, which had soured following the deadly 2020 border clash in the Himalayas. A turning point came when Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia last October, leading to renewed efforts to ease bilateral tensions and revive trade and travel ties.
Meanwhile, India’s relations with the United States — its strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific — are facing their most serious challenge in recent years. President Donald Trump’s administration has imposed steep tariffs on Indian goods, the highest among Asian nations, and has warned of further penalties over India’s continued import of Russian crude oil.
Trump, on Wednesday, escalated pressure by threatening an additional 10% tariff on imports from BRICS member nations — including India — for what he termed as “alignment with anti-American policies.” He also indicated that further punitive action on India’s Russian oil purchases could follow, depending on the outcome of ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine.
In parallel diplomatic activity, India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval is currently in Moscow on a scheduled visit to discuss strategic issues, including energy cooperation and defence ties. He is expected to seek expedited delivery of the S-400 air defence system and lay groundwork for a potential visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to India.
Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar is also expected to visit Russia in the coming weeks.
Trade Fallout from US Tariffs
U.S. and Indian officials told Reuters that failed trade deal negotiations stemmed from political missteps, miscommunication, and growing distrust — disrupting talks between the world’s largest and fifth-largest economies. India’s exports to the U.S., worth nearly $81 billion in 2024, now face fresh uncertainty.
An internal government assessment seen by Reuters estimates that India could lose its competitive edge in around $64 billion worth of exports — nearly 80% of its total outbound trade to the U.S. — if Trump’s threatened penalties are fully implemented.
The report also factors in a 10% tariff penalty specifically for India’s purchases of Russian oil, which would take total U.S. duties on Indian goods up to 35%. The trade ministry declined to comment on the assessment.
However, analysts suggest that India’s $4 trillion economy — less dependent on exports — may be resilient in the face of the new trade barriers. The Reserve Bank of India, in its monetary policy review on Wednesday, kept its GDP forecast steady at 6.5% for the 2025 fiscal year, despite the rising uncertainty in global trade.
