India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, exported an estimated 650,000–700,000 tonnes of sugar between January 20 and mid-July 2025, following the Centre’s decision to allow exports of 1 million tonnes.
Key buyers included Somalia, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Djibouti, UAE, Libya, and Tanzania.
White sugar prices in the global market (London) had peaked at USD 555 per tonne in late February but have since declined to around USD 484 due to improved supply. In contrast, Indian sugar is priced at USD 430–450 per tonne domestically.
Exporting becomes viable for Indian mills when international prices reach at least USD 502 per tonne, according to trade analysts.
The food ministry has granted over 500 sugar mills an export quota equivalent to 3 per cent of their average production over three years.
Exports can be made either directly or via merchant exporters. Despite current lower prices, industry experts anticipate more exports if global prices improve.
“We expect exports to touch 800,000 tonnes by the end of September,” said Deepak Ballani, Director General, Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers’ Association (ISMA). Prakash Naiknavare of NFCSF predicts total exports could reach 900,000 tonnes.
India’s sugar output in 2024–25 is projected at 26 million tonnes, including a special crushing season in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.
With domestic consumption expected at 28 million tonnes and opening stock at 8 million tonnes, closing stock is likely to be a comfortable 5.2–5.3 million tonnes.
Looking ahead, the 2025–26 sugar season appears promising due to favourable monsoon conditions and better cane planting across Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh.
Crisil estimates a 15 per cent increase in sugar output to 35 million tonnes in 2026, which could support ethanol production and revive export momentum.