India is expected to continue importing Russian crude at around 1.1–1.3 million barrels per day in January unless the government intervenes, according to Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst for Refining, Supply & Modelling at Kpler.
Ritolia noted that a 500% tariff threat from the United States would fundamentally alter procurement behaviour, requiring the Indian government to clarify its policy on Russian crude. “Unless the government mandates a stop, Russia crude imports are hard to halt,” he said, highlighting the role of policy guidance in shaping buying decisions.
India has ample alternatives to replace Russian barrels. Middle Eastern grades could supply most of the crude if imports were forced to stop, supplemented by US and West African barrels. Ritolia added that such a shift would mean losing discounted crude, higher average prices, and a rise in the overall import bill.
“Any disruption would trigger a stronger focus on term contracts, diversification and refinery optimisation,” he said, signalling that India’s procurement and refinery strategies may adjust to mitigate risks and manage costs in a potentially volatile oil market.
The renewed focus comes after US Senator Lindsey Graham said President Donald Trump has greenlit a bipartisan Russian sanctions Bill. The legislation would allow the US to punish countries importing discounted Russian oil, including India, over Moscow’s failure to negotiate a peace deal with Ukraine following its 2022 invasion.
“This bill would give President Trump tremendous leverage against countries like China, India, and Brazil to incentivise them to stop buying the cheap Russian oil that provides the financing for Putin’s bloodbath against Ukraine,” Graham said on X.
Kpler’s Ritolia said such a move could drastically change India’s crude sourcing strategy, adding that while the country has alternatives, maintaining imports at current levels allows India to benefit from price discounts and stable refinery operations.
