President Donald Trump could have a difficult time imposing tit-for-tat tariffs on Indian goods, as a sixth of the non-oil items shipped by India account for at least 30 percent of US imports of these products, a market analysis shows.
In 2024, India accounted for an even higher — 40 percent of US imports — when it comes to items such as drugs containing penicillin and streptomycin and food items such as shrimps and prawns. Shrimps and prawns were the fifth largest export from India, valued at nearly $1.9 billion.
India’s total exports (including oil) to the US rose 7 percent in 2024 to $80.8 billion from $75 billion the previous year.
Analysis shows that nearly $14 billion of India’s exports had “high dependence”, as they accounted for at least 30 percent of total imports by the US in the category.
On March 26, Trump announced a 25 percent tariff on all imported cars, auto components and light commercial vehicles. The levy, which will come into effect on April 3, is in addition to duties imposed on steel and aluminium products.
The US will also unveil reciprocal tariffs on April 2 but it is unclear how it will affect India, which on several occasions has been referred to as “tariff king” by Trump. He has called his country’s trade with India “unfair”.
As the tariff deadline nears, the two countries are holding talks in New Delhi, negotiating the terms of the first phase of a bilateral trade agreement.
As reported, India will also aim for exceptions from the tit-for-tat tax regime during the talks, which are expected to continue till March 29, with the visiting US trade delegation.
Trump’s blanket tariffs have already put nearly $4 billion of India’s exports in jeopardy.
What does India export to the US?
The nature of India’s exports to the US has been changing.
In 2024, pharmaceuticals and smartphones were the top Indian exports to the US, accounting for nearly 18 percent of the total shipments.
Diamonds and jewellery were the other major items, accounting for 12 percent of the exports.
Smartphones, tiles and turbojets were the fastest growing category, growing nearly 50 percent in 2024 from the previous year.
Given Apple’s growing manufacturing base in India, a duty on electronics will mean costlier iPhones as well.
