Major US container ports are forecasted to see their first month-over-month gain in import volumes this January, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
Despite the welcomed climb, import volumes are forecasted to remain down year-over-year (YoY) until spring.
“There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shipping lull that comes each year,” said NRF Vice President Jonathan Gold.
In the first half of 2025, container volumes reached 12.53 million TEUs, marking a 3.7 per cent increase compared to the same period in the previous year. However, the total volume for the year is projected to slightly decline to 25.4 million TEUs, down 0.4 per cent from 25.5 million TEUs in 2024, according to the Global Port Tracker.
January is expected to handle 2.11 million TEUs, representing the first month-over-month growth since July, as retailers stock up ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in Asia, though this still reflects a 5.3 per cent decrease YoY.
Forecasts for the following months show a continued downward trend: February is predicted at 1.94 million TEUs (down 4.6 per cent YoY), March at 1.88 million TEUs (down 12.4 per cent), and April at 2.03 million TEUs (down 8.1 per cent). May is anticipated to see a rebound with 2.07 million TEUs, marking a 6.2 per cent YoY increase, the first positive growth since August of the previous year.
In November, US ports monitored by Global Port Tracker processed 2.02 million TEUs. This figure reflects a 2.3 per cent decrease compared to October and a 6.5 per cent decline from the same month last year.
Despite the traditional winter lull in trade, inflated YoY declines partly reflect the surge of imports seen in late 2024, sparked by port strike concerns, compounded by retailers’ increasing imports earlier to curtail incoming tariffs.
Ben Hackett, Founder of Hackett Associates, attributes cargo import volatility mainly to trade policy, citing the “chronic uncertainty” in the US caused by tariffs introduced earlier in 2025.
“As 2026 begins, we see a world increasingly focused on protecting domestic industries and addressing perceived trade imbalances,” Hackett said.
“This approach has raised questions about the future of free trade and international economic cooperation.”
More optimistically, however, the US and China agreed to suspend their recently introduced reciprocal port fees last November for a period of one year, as part of a broader effort to de-escalate tensions in their maritime and trade relationship.
