Economic growth in China and India is expected to bolster demand for South African mineral exports in 2026, even as persistent logistics constraints continue to weigh on production and shipments of bulk commodities such as coal and iron ore, the Minerals Council South Africa said.
South Africa’s mining production fell by 2.7% year-on-year in November 2025, snapping six consecutive months of growth. The decline was driven by sharp contractions in coal, iron ore, gold and platinum group metals (PGMs), according to official data.
However, the Minerals Council said the November setback was not a reflection of weakening global demand. Bongani Motsa, an economist at the Minerals Council, said demand for South Africa’s mineral exports remained resilient despite geopolitical uncertainties stemming from renewed trade tensions triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
“Real economic growth in key export markets such as China and India will help sustain demand for South Africa’s minerals and metals exports,” Motsa said.
China recorded economic growth of around 5% in 2025, while India is expected to expand by about 7.5%. Moderate but steady growth is forecast to continue in both economies, underpinning strong appetite for minerals and related products.
Motsa said South Africa’s inability to fully capitalise on this demand was largely due to infrastructure failures. “The November 2025 decline in total mining production was not the result of a broad collapse in commodity demand, but rather stemmed from logistical constraints—especially for coal and iron ore—and sector-specific structural weaknesses in gold,” he said, urging policymakers to fast-track reforms in transport infrastructure for bulk commodities.
In December, the Minerals Council also flagged emerging cost pressures for miners, with intermediate input costs rising over the past three months. These increases were driven by higher prices for mining inputs such as iron ore, alongside rising costs for sawmilling and wood, electricity and water tariffs, and sharply higher road transportation expenses.
While electricity supply from state utility Eskom has stabilised, the mining sector continues to grapple with high energy costs, forcing some smelters to shut down.
The industry is calling on the Government of National Unity to urgently address rail and port bottlenecks, warning that continued inefficiencies could lead to mounting stockpiles at mines. With commodity prices currently elevated, the Minerals Council said South Africa stands to significantly increase export earnings—provided miners can move volumes efficiently to global markets.
