Global container traffic in January continued to show underlying strength, according to recently released figures from Container Trade Statistics (CTS).
Although almost every trade showed a decline in volumes from December, a year-on-year comparison saw global container volumes up 5.8% on January 2024, at 15.4m teu.
“While January volumes may appear weaker on a month-on-month basis, the year-on-year data demonstrates a strong and resilient start to the year,” said CTS.
“However, with numerous uncertainties on the horizon, the future of global trade remains uncertain.”
It warned: “After the disruptions caused by the pandemic, followed by weaker volumes in 2023 due to stockpiling in 2022, and the robust volumes seen in 2024 as warehoused stock was depleted, it’s clear that there is no definitive ‘normal’.
“Despite this, the data continues to show positive signs of a steady and sturdy market,” it added.
Surprisingly, it was European imports that led the way last month, according to CTS, which noted that “after months of holding the top spot, North America experienced a slowdown in import growth, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6%”.
It said: “Europe, on the other hand, posted impressive import growth of 13% year on year, driven by strong exports from the Far East and Indian subcontinent and Middle East regions .”
CTS data shows volumes from the Far East to Europe amounted to 1.78m teu in January, while Middle East/India-Europe volumes were 285,000 teu.
Unsurprisingly, global freight rates were dented in January, declining two points on December. However, the January figure of 94, was up 6.8% on January 2024’s level of 88, but below the January 2023 level of 107, and far below the January 2022 level of 204.
Meanwhile, US container analyst John McCown last week published data for the ten largest US ports, which shows their January import volumes outperforming both regional North America and global markets with year-on-year growth of 14.2%.
While many commentators have blithely put this down to importers’ front-loading shipments ahead of a possible ILA strike and the imposition of tariffs, Mr McCown said these analyses “simply are not supported by the actual inventory data”, and that the real reason for the increases was underlying economic demand.
“The official census data shows that any impact from pulling forward value, whether out of concern related to possible east/Gulf coast labour unrest or increased tariffs, has actually been minimal or non-existent.
He added that Bureau of Census data show US inventories in December declined by some $4.5bn, equivalent to 0.2%, from November, which “obviously doesn’t show any buildup of inventory from pulling forward imports of goods in containers”.
Mr McCown said: “Another indication that underlying economic conditions drove the recent volume gains is that the total business inventories: sales ratio was 1.35 at the end of December, a decrease from the 1.37 ratio for the five prior months.
“Instead of confirming front-loading, the relevant factual data shows this has not occurred,” he wrote last week.
