India stands to gain as much as $7 billion in exports to the United States if it is spared tariffs as high as recently imposed on the European Union, according to an analysis. However, these gains would come with minimal trade loss to the EU, amounting to just 1.3 percent of the bloc’s $571 billion exports to the US in 2024.
Jewellery, pharma and Christmas cheer
India’s potential gains would come mainly in pharmaceuticals and jewellery, sectors in which the EU exports nearly $3 billion worth of goods annually to the US.
India may also cash in on seasonal products such as Christmas festivity articles. While the EU exported only $41.2 million worth of such products to the US, India already has a strong foothold, with over half of its $117.3 million global exports of festive articles heading to the American market.
Dresses and footwear are also among the 117 product categories – out of 967 where both the EU and India export to the US – where India could gain a clear advantage.
Mexico’s Modest Losses
The impact on Mexico, which along with the EU faces 30 percent tariffs, is expected to be more muted. India’s potential gain would be $4.1 billion, or 5 percent of Mexico’s US exports, and just 0.8 percent of Mexico’s total exports to the US.
The analysis focuses on high-volume products (more than $5 million trade) where India either outperforms or underperforms its competitors by at least 50 percent, and where there is scalability in India’s export capacity.
Earlier, the analyses indicated that 20 percent of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka’s exports to the US could be at risk under the new tariff regime, particularly in the textiles sector.