The container peak season on the transpacific trade could start as early as today – the latest tariff rollback from President Trump at the end of last week for electronic consumer goods likely to prompt a new wave of ex-Asia bookings.
After postponing implementation of the so-called reciprocal tariffs until 9 July, although maintaining a base 10% tariff rate, while at the same time raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, media reports today that shippers in countries such as Taiwan and Malaysia are already rushing to ship as many products within the 90-day window as possible.
This prompted analysts at Sea-Intelligence to call an early peak season.
“This means bookings to other countries than China, which were held back in the week leading up to the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, are now being booked as fast as possible,” said Sea-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy.
“But not only that, all US importers getting cargo from anywhere but China are sure to fast-track volume in the next three months, to get their peak season goods through customs before the 9 July deadline.
“In other words, a boom and an early peak season into the US will start right now,” he claimed.
However, he also noted that the 145% tariff on Chinese goods had led to a “a complete bust in booking volumes”.
With European exports to the US subject to the blanket 10% tariff, transatlantic carriers have begun to unveil new peak season surcharges (PSSs) for the trade.
MSC today said it would implement a PSS on all shipments from North Europe to the US, Canada and Mexico of $800 per teu and $1,000 per 40ft container from 13 May – under Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) regulations, all rate surcharges must be notified to the trade 30 days in advance.
Last week Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM separately announced new PSSs on Greece and Turkey to US shipments from 11 May and 3 May, respectively – Hapag-Lloyd will apply $550 per teu and $750 per 40ft, while CMA CGM’s PSS is $500 per teu and $1,000 per 40ft.
The German carrier will also implement a $1,500 per container PSS on shipments from the Middle East/Indian subcontinent to North America on 11 May.
On a wider note, the flip-flopping on tariffs is expected to affect annual contracts under negotiation on the transpacific, and Mr Murphy suggested that shippers – particularly US importers – would need to remain “extremely agile” over the next three months.
“Act tactically,” he advised. “Do not try to make medium- and long-term plans for changing sourcing or supply chains.
“Ship the cargo when there is a window of low tariffs.
“Build buffer inventory, also for supply chains not directly exposed to US-China, as we are likely to see ripple effects spread to other trades, as for example equipment shortages might well happen, in especially Asia outside of China,” he added.
