Air cargo is in a “wait-and-see moment”, as the industry tries to navigate through the chaos wrought by the US’s sweeping new tariff regime.
Changing trade rules have combined with geopolitical risks, creating a moment of unprecedented uncertainty, said trade facilitation programme officer at the International Trade Centre Alina Fetisova, at IATA’s World Cargo Symposium in Dubai today.
“We are witnessing a slower pace of growth, with the tariffs having put the industry in a wait-and-see moment,” said Ms Fetisova.
Noting that there was still “lots of potential change” to come, and “not only from the US but from Europe” – with the bloc also having moved to amend its rules on the de minimis exemption – she said growth projections for the year were down, compared with 2024.
“Demand growth last year for air cargo as a whole hit 11.3%, but for this year, we are projecting a growth rate of 4-6%,” Ms Fetivova continued.
Uncertainty notwithstanding, the general sense at the opening of WCS was that world trade would pull through, and talk of the end of globalisation may have come too soon. Aevean MD Marco Bloemen suggested it was more nuanced than that.
“What we are seeing is ‘slowbalisation’ – trade is slowing, trade is growing slower than GDP – and, yes, in some places we are seeing de-globalisation.”
But Air Canada Cargo’s MD commercial, Matthieu Casey, urged people not to overreact, suggesting that while there were “tectonic shifts” taking place in global trade, these “are moving perhaps far slower than the headlines make it feel”.
Speaking to the media on the sidelines of WCS, Kale Logistics Solutions CEO Amar More said opportunities would present themselves.
“More regulations and rules mean there will be more potential for automation, and even if there is a slowdown, it will take time to filter through; and even then, international trade is like water, it will find its way,” said Mr More.
“The only issue will be if there is a significant slowdown in international trade, but I think what you will see is China moving to Europe and the Middle East, to make up for the US.”
Panellists appeared to concur that trade would look to shift markets to make up for the loss of business that may occur if the US holds firm on its tariff pledges and desire to rebuild its manufacturing sector.
Mr Bloemen and Mr Casey both believed there would be a shift towards emergent markets, although the former said they would not make up for a loss of the US market.
Industry executives at the show, however, challenged the suggestion that the US was in a process of deglobalisation, one said that it “is very clearly a tactic of negotiation”, adding that once President Trump got what he wanted, he would “cut the tariff crap”.
Others concurred on the negotiation tactic, but none appeared to be at all certain of exactly what Mr Trump was negotiating for.
