China’s total crude oil imports rose 4.9% year-on-year in 2025 to 11.6m barrels per day (mbpd), up from 11.1 mbpd in 2024, according to data from the General Administration of Customs (GACC). Seaborne crude imports increased an estimated 4.0% year-on-year, but underlying demand weakened as stockpiling played a major role, BIMCO said.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), China’s crude oil stockpiles rose by slightly less than 1 mbpd in 2025, implying that underlying import demand actually fell by nearly 0.5 mbpd, said Niels Rasmussen, BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst.
China remains a key driver of the crude tanker market, accounting for just over one-fifth of global crude tanker volumes and around 30% of tonne miles. Its imports are particularly critical for trades from the Persian Gulf, Brazil and Russia.
However, changes in sourcing shortened average sailing distances by almost 1% year-on-year, limiting tonne-mile growth to 3.2% despite higher volumes. The shift was largely driven by a sharp decline in US crude shipments and a surge in Canadian exports.
China’s crude imports from the US fell 61% year-on-year in 2025 after Beijing raised tariffs on US crude in February, with volumes failing to recover. At the same time, imports from Canada surged 313%, supported by increased flows into Vancouver following the expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline. Ongoing talks between China and Canada, alongside ambitions to boost Canadian crude exports to China by 50% by 2030, could further lift volumes.
Together with Brazil, Canada was a key contributor to China’s import growth in 2025, while the US and Russia recorded the largest declines. Russian crude still accounted for 11% of China’s seaborne supply, and additional US sanctions have so far had little visible impact on volumes.
Despite stockpiling support, seaborne crude imports to China grew by less than 1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, as volumes declined in the first quarter. The fourth quarter proved decisive, accounting for 56% of total import growth and nearly 80% of seaborne import growth, coinciding with a global oil surplus and Brent crude prices falling below USD 65 per barrel.
Looking ahead, both the EIA and the International Energy Agency (IEA) expect China’s oil consumption to rise by only 0.2 mbpd in 2026, equivalent to 1.2% year-on-year growth. Seaborne imports are likely to grow more slowly, with the IEA forecasting refinery runs to increase by just 0.1 mbpd, while the EIA expects stockpiling to continue at close to 1 mbpd, Rasmussen said.
